BY WILLIAMS JOE
At the heart of the political crisis in Rivers State is a delicate power calculation confronting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu: how to manage two powerful allies whose interests now openly clash — Nyesom Wike, a key contributor to Tinubu’s 2023 victory, and Governor Siminalayi Fubara, the constitutionally elected governor of Rivers State.
Will Tinubu sacrifice Wike?
A direct “sacrifice” of Wike is highly unlikely in the short term.
Wike is not just a former governor; he is:
A core political asset who openly worked against his party (PDP) to support Tinubu in 2023
A sitting FCT Minister, strategically placed in Tinubu’s cabinet
A bridge between the APC and influential PDP blocs
Removing or sidelining Wike outright would:
Send a negative signal to political defectors and allies
Undermine Tinubu’s reputation as a leader who rewards loyalty
Risk destabilizing the fragile cross-party alliances that helped Tinubu win
Instead, Tinubu’s instinct — consistent with his political history — is containment, not confrontation.
Will Tinubu abandon Fubara?
Equally, Tinubu cannot afford to openly abandon Governor Fubara.
Fubara:
Is the legitimate, elected governor of Rivers State
Controls the state apparatus, security cooperation, and grassroots structures
Represents stability in one of Nigeria’s most economically strategic states
Undermining a sitting governor too aggressively would:
Create constitutional and democratic concerns
Fuel public sympathy for Fubara
Risk prolonged instability in Rivers State, which Tinubu cannot afford
What Tinubu is likely to do
Rather than choosing one man over the other, Tinubu is likely to:
Force a political détente between Wike and Fubara
Encourage power-sharing or negotiated boundaries of influence
Use party structures, security agencies, and elder statesmen to limit escalation
In short, Tinubu’s strategy is expected to be political arbitration, not sacrifice.
What is at stake?
• For Tinubu
Control of Rivers State ahead of 2027 elections
Preservation of his image as a master political manager
Maintaining loyalty among defectors and coalition partners
• For Wike
Continued relevance as a national power broker
Retention of influence over Rivers political structures
Protection of his legacy and political network
• For Fubara
Survival as an independent governor
Control of the state legislature and institutions
His political future beyond Wike’s shadow
• For Rivers State
Governance stability
Economic confidence (especially investors)
Security and social cohesion
Bottom line
Tinubu is unlikely to sacrifice Wike, but he is also unlikely to crush Fubara. The president’s real objective is to keep both men politically useful, even if that means restraining their excesses.
The ultimate battle is not about loyalty alone — it is about who controls Rivers State going into 2027, and Tinubu wants that control without burning bridges.
